Climate extremes are reshaping food systems

The new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of Climate report delivers an unambiguous verdict. The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history. The past 11 years have been the warmest on record, reflecting sustained warming driven by record greenhouse gas levels, unprecedented ocean heat uptake, and accelerating extreme weather. These changes are already reshaping our food systems.

Weather disruptions are directly affecting agricultural systems, livelihoods, and the supply of the commodities that underpin global food chains. Coffee, cocoa, and cotton yields have fluctuated dramatically in recent years, and in tropical regions, agricultural productivity is estimated to be up to 35% lower than it would have been without climate change.

Extreme weather is no longer a distant threat. Heatwaves, storms, floods, and prolonged droughts disrupt planting, harvesting, and labour availability, while cascading effects ripple across markets, threatening food security and economic stability.

Agriculture and natural ecosystems are deeply interconnected. Croplands and grazing lands cover over a third of Earth’s land surface, and the expansion of commodities replaced nearly 72 million hectares of forest between 2001 and 2015. This loss undermines soil fertility, reduces resilience to climate extremes, and amplifies volatility in global commodity markets.

Across coffee, cocoa, cotton, and palm oil regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, systemic interventions are demonstrating how agriculture, ecosystems, and climate resilience can be mutually reinforcing.

For example, in Aceh, Indonesia, where palm oil expansion has driven deforestation, companies, local government and smallholders work together to protect forests and improve production practices. In the Aceh Tamiang district, this has included deforestation monitoring and response systems, alongside restoration and patrols. Deforestation has fallen by over a third, high conservation value forest has been protected, and smallholder incomes have increased. The approach is now being expanded to other districts and has resulted in the adoption of a sustainable palm oil plan across the province.

In Brazil, the Caatinga Biome is one of the world’s most biodiverse semiarid regions. To protect and restore this unique landscape while supporting the people who depend on it, IDH and the Laudes Foundation launched the Raízes da Caatinga program. Across three key states in central Brazil, guided by the Produce, Protect, and Include approach, we aim to prevent desertification as well as tackle issues of social inequality and food insecurity.

Hear from manager Grazielle Cardoso on how Raízes da Caatinga is driving sustainable transformation in Brazil’s semi-arid region: 

Such examples show that systemic, coordinated approaches are the key to adapting agriculture to a rapidly changing climate.

The message from the WMO report is unequivocal. Climate extremes are already reshaping the world we live in, and the impacts will accelerate. Coordinated land-use planning, climate-smart commodity production, and cross-sectoral landscape management demonstrate that agriculture, nature, and climate resilience are mutually reinforcing. Scaling these protects livelihoods, stabilises value chains, and restores the ecosystems on which future food systems depend.